Description
The geopolitical maneuverability held by the Russian Federation has been considered to be intrinsically connected to the prices of hydrocarbons, as roughly half of the government's budget derives from hydrocarbon revenues. As hydrocarbon prices stay remarkably collapsed for the third year, the Kremlin's revenue problems are compounded by international sanctions and a level of international mistrust still rippling from its aggressive actions in annexing Ukraine in 2014. It is to be expected, then, that Russian foreign posturing would be collapsed and submissive. How then is the Kremlin, being so apparently constrained by international sanctions and low hydrocarbon prices, able to conduct a foreign policy so robust and aggressive that the Kremlin has been de facto operating in a war mode, as significant scholars like Dr. Dmitri Trenin would suggest. This study will identify and discuss the function of the most significant factors that allow the Kremlin to operate in a way utterly unexpected by contemporary understanding of the effects of low oil and gas prices on Russian foreign posturing.
Under Strain: a Robust Russian Foreign Posture Despite Limitations
The geopolitical maneuverability held by the Russian Federation has been considered to be intrinsically connected to the prices of hydrocarbons, as roughly half of the government's budget derives from hydrocarbon revenues. As hydrocarbon prices stay remarkably collapsed for the third year, the Kremlin's revenue problems are compounded by international sanctions and a level of international mistrust still rippling from its aggressive actions in annexing Ukraine in 2014. It is to be expected, then, that Russian foreign posturing would be collapsed and submissive. How then is the Kremlin, being so apparently constrained by international sanctions and low hydrocarbon prices, able to conduct a foreign policy so robust and aggressive that the Kremlin has been de facto operating in a war mode, as significant scholars like Dr. Dmitri Trenin would suggest. This study will identify and discuss the function of the most significant factors that allow the Kremlin to operate in a way utterly unexpected by contemporary understanding of the effects of low oil and gas prices on Russian foreign posturing.