Document Type

Article

Publication Date

4-22-2026

Journal Title

Economics of Peace and Security Journal

Volume Number

21

Issue Number

1

DOI

doi.org/10.15355/epsj.21.1.32

Version

Publisher PDF: the final published version of the article, with professional formatting and typesetting

Disciplines

Peace and Conflict Studies

Abstract

Most firearms recovered from crime scenes in Mexico originate in legal U.S. retail markets, yet little is known about whether federal enforcement constrains this diversion. This article examines how compliance citations issued by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) affect subsequent firearms trafficking from U.S. Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) to Mexico. ATF inspection-violation records are merged with more than 12,000 firearms traced from Mexican seizures and U.S. trafficking court cases, exploiting within-dealer variation over time. Across multiple model specifications, ATF citations are strongly associated with reductions in trafficking—each additional citation corresponds to a 20–44% decline in trafficked firearms, and cited dealers contribute substantially fewer trafficked guns than comparable uncited retailers. These results suggest that even limited regulatory enforcement can meaningfully disrupt illicit firearms supply chains upstream of cross-border smuggling.

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